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BANKITALIA CONFERMATE LE STIME SUL PIL MA LANCIA L'ALLARME

Posted on 23 January, 2017 at 9:35

Banca d'Italia conferma le stime per la crescita dell'economia italiana nel 2016 e nel 2017. Nel bollettino economico, l'istituto rileva come le proiezioni "aggiornate in base agli andamenti più recenti, indicano che in media il Pil dovrebbe essere aumentato dello 0,9% nel 2016, crescerebbe attorno allo 0,9% anche nell'anno in corso e all'1,1 sia nel 2018 sia nel 2019". Numeri identici a quelli diffusi da Bankitalia a dicembre e sostanzialmente allineati a quelli del bollettino di luglio e ottobre che avevano limato le precedenti stime.

 

Tuttavia Banca d'Italia pone qualche dubbio sul futuro, una crisi bancaria e finanziaria e un rialzo dello spread oltre che un rallentamento del processo di riforme avviato in questi anni potrebbe incidere sulle stime di crescita dell'economia italiana della Banca d'Italia. Nel suo bollettino economico l'istituto centrale avvisa come "il quadro economico (pil +0,9% in 2016 e 2017 e +1,1% in 2018 e 2019) presuppone il mantenimento di un livello contenuto dei rendimenti a lungo termine e condizioni del credito, in termini di costo e disponibilità, complessivamente distese". "Ciò - spiega - riflette l'ipotesi che non si verifichino tensioni sui mercati finanziari e bancari nell'area dell'euro e in Italia, né episodi di significativo aumento dei premi per il rischio e della volatilità; rispecchia altresì l'ipotesi, incorporata nelle quotazioni di mercato, che nel nostro paese non si interrompa la realizzazione del processo di riforma avviato negli ultimi anni".

 

Inoltre Banca d'Italia vede rischi per la crescita dal "diffondersi di spinte protezionistiche". Nel bollettino economico l'istituto centrale rileva come "i rischi per la crescita siano ancora orientati prevalentemente al ribasso". "I principali fattori di incertezza provengono, oltre che dalle condizioni finanziarie, dal contesto mondiale. È in particolare elevato il rischio - aggiunge - che l'espansione dell'economia globale possa risentire del manifestarsi e del diffondersi di spinte protezionistiche, oltre che di possibili turbolenze nelle economie emergenti". "Il livello del PIL nel 2019 sarebbe ancora inferiore di circa quattro punti percentuali rispetto al 2007" se fossero confermate le stime della crescita (+0,9% in 2017 e +1,1% nei due anni successivi). E' quanto ricorda la Banca d'Italia nel suo bollettino economico secondo cui "l'attività economica verrebbe ancora sospinta dalla domanda nazionale e, già dal 2017, dal graduale rafforzamento di quella estera".

 

"In autunno la ripresa dell'economia italiana è proseguita, pur se moderatamente" E' quanto afferma la Banca d'Italia nel bollettino economico dove si confermano le stime sul Pil 2016 e 2017 (+0,9% in entrambi gli anni). "Considerando l'andamento della produzione industriale, quello dei consumi elettrici e quello del trasporto merci, tutti in crescita - spiega Bankitalia - e gli indicatori di fiducia delle imprese, che si collocano su valori elevati, nel quarto trimestre del 2016 il Pil potrebbe essere aumentato a un ritmo valutabile attorno allo 0,2 per cento rispetto al periodo precedente".

 

"Nel terzo trimestre del 2016 l'occupazione totale si è stabilizzata, sono aumentati i lavoratori dipendenti, sia a tempo determinato sia a tempo indeterminato". E' quanto si legge nel bollettino di Bankitalia secondo cui le indicazioni congiunturali più aggiornate suggeriscono "un'espansione contenuta" dell'occupazione nei mesi finali dell'anno scorso.

Sempre nello stesso trimestre, il tasso di disoccupazione è rimasto stabile all'11,6% mentre nei mesi di ottobre e di novembre, sulla base di dati preliminari, il tasso di disoccupazione sarebbe leggermente cresciuto rispetto al bimestre precedente (all'11,9%), "seguendo il contestuale aumento del tasso di attività", precisa Bankitalia.

Inoltre, si spiega nel bollettino, nel corso dell'anno si è notevolmente ridotta la dinamica delle retribuzioni del settore privato, risentendo sia dei ritardi nella stipula di molti rinnovi, sia della mancata erogazione di incrementi salariali per il 2016 e il sostanziale congelamento delle retribuzioni contrattuali ha interessato circa la metà dei lavoratori dipendenti

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